Sunday, September 07, 2008

Harper's To Lose

And so we are off.

At this moment I have to confess it is hard for me to imagine how Dion would win this election. From the Star:
Harper will run on his record, outlining the tax-cutting promises kept since the 2006 campaign, and slammed the Liberal "green shift" plan to tax carbon fuels and offset the impact with other income tax cuts and subsidies for hard-hit sectors and individuals as a risky gamble.
I believe Dion hadn't had time to fully sell his Green Shift to the general population.

At work, hardly many people know the details of the Green Shift. More people know about the tax increase on pollutants than the income tax relief that Dion has proposed. With the Green Party also doing well, Dion could leak support to them as well.

All in all, it will come down to the English debates where Dion has to invoke a "gotcha" moment vs Harper - and I am not a big optimist that his English will improve sufficiently in time.


CuriosityCat said...

The Liberals had time to market the Green Shift policy, but did not get their act straight. In this respect, this election is similar to the badly-organized Martin one in 2006.

Also, running on just one major policy plank is dangerous and will lead to a Harper victory, and then to a new Liberal leader.

If Dion wants to become Prime Minister, he needs another arrow in his election quiver. I have been arguing for a plank called Parliament for the People (the main issue), which has three components: a Make Parliament Work one (reforms of how Parliament works), a Gender Equality Promise (which Dion has said he is in favour of, and which could mobilize women to vote Liberal), and a commitment to hold a plebiscite by June 30, 2009 on a Modified Proportional Representation proposal (which would attract Green and NDP voters to vote Liberal).

Without some simple, catchy, and understandable policy to add to the Green Shift, Liberals will lose.

mezba said...

The Martin 2006 election was more of a repeat of the previous election but the same strategies did not work. Scary harper was one idea that worked in 2005 but not in 2006, plus they had the RCMP-induced scandal.

In this case, not enough mention has been made of what Harper has done wrong. The Libs are not controlling the agenda and will lose unless they make it clear to us Canadians why Harper is bad for Canada.