Thursday, June 27, 2019

October 2019 Election Watch

Things have become very interesting on the federal electron front. October is still far, but as I predicted last time, it's going to get tighter. Much tighter.
According to the latest Nanos poll, the Liberals and the Tories are in a dead heat. Statistically tied. The aggregate summary still points to a Tory lead, but one that is rapidly shrinking. I believe there's two reasons, and we can draw two main conclusions.
  1. People don't like Scheer (or as I call him, #ScheerNonsense ) because of his association and support for (and from) Ontario Premier Doug Ford. Ford is historically unpopular (more unpopular than Wynne was before losing), and people see Scheer in the same mold.
  2. Most people were pissed of at Trudeau for some of his antics (India trip, "peoplekind not mankind", the SNC Lavalin, virtue signalling etc.) but once they evaluate the alternative, they realize he is not that bad. Jobs are plentiful and he is moving on the pipeline issue, and generally people are not thinking about deficits. Besides, Scheer's missteps with dealing with white supremacy is also playing a part.
As the election gets more heated and close, we can expect two conclusions.
  1. The NDP will sink even further. Expect the Liberals to promote the idea of the nasty Conservative government doom and gloom scenario, and why we must vote Liberal to stop them. They will not be wrong. The NDP under Singh has no voice, no pulse, no fresh ideas and no charisma. It's sad because we will thus get "safe politics" and not a genuine exchange of ideas.
  2. The Quebec religious oppression bill will be a non-issue. In a situation where every vote matters, no one will dare take on Quebec (sadly).

It will be an interesting summer!

Source: CBC