Sunday, January 06, 2019

USMCA: How Trudeau Tackled Trump

Everyone remembers the handshake. Or the buttering up of Trump's fragile ego by Team Canada and the soft appeal to his daughter. Yet, underneath all that angst and bitterness, the Prime Minister of Canada has shown a firm resolve to ensure Canada does not suffer under the gross and inept stupidity that is the current US administration. Here is how Team Trudeau protected Canada during the NAFTA (and ultimately USMCA) negotiations.

1. Cars

Cars sold now must be more North American (75%). This is a win for Canada as there is also a US$16 minimum wage requirement, which cuts competition from China and Mexico. Very smartly Canada hid behind a US push for this to protect their own interests.
And when Mexico caved in first to US, this gave Canada more leverage to smoothen out irritations. Moreover, Canada was given a quota to export 2.6 million cars to the US every year, tariff free, and currently we ship much less.

2. Dairy

This is where Canada gave some concessions, but no more than what was already given to the trans Pacific free trade and the EU free trade agreements. Trump wanted to dismantle our supply management system, yet now they had to be happy with access to 3.6% of our market.

Additional imports mean less captive domestic market for Canada’s farmers, which means more farms may downsize herds and close. It will force our dairy sector to become more competitive, and may eventually translate into lower grocery prices, according to Sylvain Charlebois, a business professor at Dalhousie University.

3. Steel

Pretty much nothing has effectively changed. US still needs much more steel and aluminum than they can currently produce, and they HAVE to import it from us, so their tariffs are hurting their own consumers, while our tariffs remain in place as well.

4. Dispute Resolution

Despite much hot air from Trump, Canada has ensured that Chapter 19 resolution process remains in place. The fact that Canada prevailed here will be touted as a significant win by the Canadian negotiators.

“Having a robust and fair dispute-resolution mechanism is absolutely critical to maintaining a rules-based trading system and providing an avenue for Canada and Canadian companies to appeal unwarranted duties,” Susan Yurkovich, president of the B.C. Lumber Trade Council, said in a statement.

5. Sunset Clause

Another stupid idea floated by Trump, Canada has ensured there is no expiry date for the new NAFTA. Hence businesses can plan for growth and future without worrying about the treaty expiring.

6. Others

Oil. Labour. Drugs. Wine. On all those issues, pretty much nothing has effectively changed in a major fashion, despite much US complaints. In all of those issues, Canada has held firm and Trudeau managed to get his way.

Source: Washington Post, Maclean's

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