Looks like Joe Biden will be the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for the Nov 2020 election. He has just won Michigan.
What this shows:
- Trump is a politically savvy and smart man. Despite all earlier polls first favouring Warren, then Sanders, he knew it would be Joe Biden who would ultimately win. He had called it.
- Expect the GOP to court Sanders supporters. They will all sound off on how rigged the process was.
- If Sanders cannot win a Democratic Primary process running to the left, then there is no way in hell he can win a general election running on a socialist platform. All polls that show him ahead of Trump is garbage - they mean nothing this far out.
- For all of Sander's reported reach amongst youth, amongst Latinos and amongst a wide variety of voters, ultimately you have to vote. Biden's black vote block reliably came out to vote, and Sander's "young voters" didn't. No use crying about rigged process when your own supporters don't show up at the polls.
- It's not even close. Biden is wiping the floor with Sanders.
What does this mean for a general election?
The whole uncertainty in this whole process is the corona virus and its effect. Americans can be heavily partisan, they can be heavily racist in some states, but everyone values their life. If Biden can make the mismanagement of the COVID-19 outbreak as a defining issue of Trump's bumbling presidency, he will win. In all other routes, Trump HAD him cornered. Biden appears to be senile, prone to gaffes, not in the best agile state of mind, and is making highly restricted campaign appearances as he became a front runner. Expect those glaring deficiencies to be highlighted during the national election campaign. Yet, the COVID-19 outbreak remains the albatross on Trump's neck.
