Not So Sunny Anymore - Liberals in the Red

The recent polls do not look good for PM Justin Trudeau, at first glance. His party has been dropping steadily at the polls ever since the SNC Lavalin scandal broke, and they have not appeared to stop the bleeding. The good news, if any, for the Liberals is that the Scheer Conservatives have only brisen by 2 points even as the Liberals have dropped by 9. The deficit, rather strangely, has not been picked up by NDP but by the Green party. This means there is a soft vote that is angry at the Liberals, concerned at the environment but does not want to vote Conservative. During crunch time in an election campaign, there may be a way to get these votes back. For the Conservatives, they must be alarmed at why they are not growing in support. Their strategy so far has been to shore up their base. Thus they have MPs attending pro-life rallies, their leader has strongly associated himself with Ford and his fight against the carbon tax, and they have not criticized Trump or the Republican party politics down south. They are betting that the Liberals will drop even further, so they can pick up the pieces. The NDP are also the big losers in the whole mess. Their leader, while being smart and doing nothing as Trudeau scored own goal after own goal, has not been able to grow the party. In fact, he has not even dominated any news cycles. There's no fresh ideas from the NDP, and they seem to be playing a waiting game. They could play a waiting game for a long time. The Greens are the big winners. They have had positive coverage of both the party and the leader. They have won a byelection in BC recently. They have grown the party, picking up Liberal pieces. If they play their cards right, this could be a breakthough election for them. So after all of this, we come to the two most common adages about elections. Governments Defeat Themselves. Campaigns Matter. We will know in October 2019.

Trudeau's Headaches and Possible Solutions in an Election Year

The next general election for Canada will take place on or before Oct 21, 2019. While various polls show Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the lead, with right wing Conservative leader Andrew Scheer and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh failing to capture the public's attention, a lot can change from now to October. The never ending honeymoon that Trudeau was seemingly enjoying in the first two years has all but vanished, and there's a growing sense that he might be in trouble during the election. I will talk about his good work, and his challenges, and how the Liberals can overcome those.

Here are some good things Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government has done:

1. He kept promises such as overhauling the child benefit plan, legalizing cannabis, giving parents option of extended parental leave.

2. Lowered taxes for the middle class, while increasing the taxes for the wealthiest 1%.

3. Reversed many of the excesses of the Harper era, such as unmuzzling government scientists, enabling the long form census for Stats Canada, revitalized federal ocean science programs and promoting the national parks program.

4. Made all of Canada's national parks free for the Canada 150 event.




5. Strengthened the Canada Pension Plan, and increased infrastructure funding to a historic $120 billion over the next 10 years.

6. Simplified family immigration by decreasing the time taken to sponsor new family members, particularly spouses.

7. Signed the Paris Climate Change agreement.

8. Took in over 30,000 refugees from Syria.

9. A gender balanced cabinet.

Trudeau also had some major disasters, such as the trip to India, the broken promise of electoral reform and his problem with deficits.

Going forward, these are likely to be his greatest challenges in the election:

1. Some Canadians are feeling left behind.

It's a bit surreal, but the Canadian economy is motoring along nicely. Unemployment is at its lowest in decades, and inflation is on target at just over 2%. Canada has also managed to sign a new free trade deal with US and Mexico, and have dealt efficiently with Trump.

Yet there is no question that some Canadians feel left behind. They are uncertain of the economic direction of the country. The finance department has said deficits could remain till 2040. House prices remain high. Millennials are finding life more expensive and harder than their parents. There is a sense that the middle class is slipping. For Trudeau, who campaigned on the promise to help "the middle class and those working hard to join it", that could spell trouble.

2. Oil

There is the carbon tax, which is being heavily fought by a few of the premiers. And then there is the neverending saga of the pipeline. Trudeau wants the pipeline to be built, yet he has been unable to deliver on this. This is hurting Alberta and hurting the Liberal-friendly NDP government there. While Alberta was never a Liberal stronghold, a combination of low oil prices, carbon taxes that may not work exactly as planned due to market variations and a hostile new provincial government in Alberta helping the Conservatives might spell deep trouble for the Liberals.

3. Immigration

Issues like healthcare and economy usually dominate the Canadian list of concerns during an election. But this time immigration could play a role. In the past two years, over 38,500 migrants have crossed the border illegally in order to turn themselves over to authorities and make refugee claims. The sheer number of asylum seekers has strained the resources of government and community organisations. The wait-time for hearings by Canada's refugee board has edged up to an average of around 20 months. But with a report projecting that supporting and processing the asylum seekers could cost taxpayers over C$1bn, there is a growing sense the file has been mishandled.

Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen is one of the least popular ministers in Trudeau's cabinet, according to the Angus Reid Institute. Given the subject tends to bubble up into public consciousness in late summer when migrant numbers have jumped in the past, this could be a lurking vulnerability for Trudeau.

HOW SHOULD HE OVERCOME THESE CHALLENGES?

1. Keep the focus on Scheer's extreme right wing tendencies.

Canadians still remember the dark era of the Harper majority government. Trudeau should keep reminding people about how similar Scheer is to Harper, and in fact he is even more extreme. He should remind Canadians about the assault on democratic institutions; the war on the press; the muzzling of scientists; the drumbeat of official lies; the assault on the Supreme Court; the politicization of the RCMP; the abandonment of the UN; the retreat from multilateralism; the rush to war; and a string of corruption scandals, including one that led directly to the door of the Prime Minister’s Office. The senator Mike Duffy and Nigel Wright Affair. Trumpland before Trump.

2. Remind Canadians that he is the only one to have dealt properly with Trump, neither making him an enemy nor caving to him on every front.

There is a sense that the Conservatives would simply bend over to Trump and give everything to him on a silver platter. Trudeau should remind voters that he has gone toe to toe with the US President and come out a winner.

3. Remind Canadians about his promises kept and the Conservative broken promises.

If Jason Kenney wins in Alberta and harrumphs about the shortcomings of former Premier Rachel Notley and the Prime Minister, Trudeau should note that the Harper government, in which Kenney was a senior cabinet minister, never delivered a single pipeline to Alberta. Not one. Trudeau meanwhile has not only supported the Kinder Morgan pipeline, he has bought it.

4. Cut down on the feminist part, and play for the male voter.

Trudeau needs to show to the male voters that he gets their pain. That he understands the bread and butter issues. "Because it's 2015" is not going to work in 2019. According to NANOS polls, more male voters are drifting away from the Liberals due to their concerns about the economy. Tour the factories, the construction work on the infrastructure, and cut down on the selfies.

In other words, more steak, less sizzle.

What is the Conservative Plan for the Environment?

What is the Conservative Plan for the environment?

Image credit: Moudakis

Lately Scheer, the leader of the Opposition, has been in the news for criticizing PM Trudeau's carbon tax plan. And while it's never good for your criticism itself to make the news, the Scheer was not only using false information (and outright lies) in his rebuttal, his party did not seem to have a comprehensive plan of their own to offer.

The challenge for any Canadian government is to reduce greenhouse emissions, but at the same time not hurt our industry or jobs.

WHAT OUR GOVERNMENT IS DOING:

Starting in 2019, Canadians will start to pay more for the gas they burn and the products they buy, but the cost will depend on where you live – and whether your province has its own carbon tax, or whether Ottawa is imposing its own. Ottawa’s goal is to reduce emissions by 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.

Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, New Brunswick, Yukon and Nunavut will have to pay a tax of $20 per tonne of emissions (4.4 cents per litre of gasoline). The tax will increase by $10 a year until it reaches $50 per tonne by 2022, but most of it will be returned to residents in the form of rebates — which for many Canadians will be more than what it will cost them (as per the government). Here’s what that means for the average family in Ontario: According to the federal government, the average Ontario household will pay $244 in direct and indirect costs for carbon, but will receive $300 under the “climate-action incentive,” for a net benefit of $56.

The federal government said 90 per cent of the carbon tax revenue collected will go back to households in the affected provinces and territories through Climate Action Incentive payments; the remaining 10 per cent will go to hospitals, schools and businesses in order to help develop greener solutions.

THE LIES OF SCHEER

That is the government plan. Now let's see what (or where) is the Opposition's plan. The Conservative Party opposes the carbon tax and are trying to make it a wedge issue ahead of October’s federal election.

- First of all, Scheer was caught in a lie. Previously he said his own plan would meet the Paris accord, now he is saying it won't. Second, despite MOST economists saying a carbox tax is the most efficient way to reduce emissions, Scheer has opposed it from the beginning on ideological grounds. Once again, what's his plan?

- In the New Year, Scheer was caught making false statements again. First he said a carbon tax won't reduce emissions and cut jobs.

Fact: B.C. ALREADY has a carbon tax plan. According to the B.C. government, since implementation GDP grew by 17 per cent and net emissions dropped by 4.7 per cent. So the idea that carbon taxes stifle businesses by itself is false. Alberta has already followed with its own carbon tax plan.

Fact: Countries and provinces which already have carbon taxes in place haven’t reported that factories or companies left, and in places like Sweden the economy has grown under a carbon tax, and the government says small- to medium-sized businesses were competitive on the global marketplace because of their green initiatives, the World Bank reported in 2016.

- Next, Scheer said there is an "exemption" for largest emittors so the plan won't work.

Fact: Environment Canada spokesperson Sabrina Kim explained that this is the same approach taken by the EU, California, Quebec, Alberta, and it will cut pollution, drive innovation and keep Canada's industries competitive. Chris Ragan, chair of Canada’s Ecofiscal Commission, said it’s less of an exemption and more of a tax break to keep Canadian companies competitive.

If all you did is you put a carbon price in place, you’d be paying that tax on your carbon emissions but your competitors in Nebraska wouldn’t be. So Scheer is challenging the very mechanism used to keep Canadian companies competitive.

So, one has to ask:

WHERE IS THE CONSERVATIVE PLAN? Is it all hot air, and nothing to show for it? Do they even care about the environment at all?

Source: CBC, CTV, Global News

USMCA: How Trudeau Tackled Trump

Everyone remembers the handshake. Or the buttering up of Trump's fragile ego by Team Canada and the soft appeal to his daughter. Yet, underneath all that angst and bitterness, the Prime Minister of Canada has shown a firm resolve to ensure Canada does not suffer under the gross and inept stupidity that is the current US administration. Here is how Team Trudeau protected Canada during the NAFTA (and ultimately USMCA) negotiations.

1. Cars

Cars sold now must be more North American (75%). This is a win for Canada as there is also a US$16 minimum wage requirement, which cuts competition from China and Mexico. Very smartly Canada hid behind a US push for this to protect their own interests.
And when Mexico caved in first to US, this gave Canada more leverage to smoothen out irritations. Moreover, Canada was given a quota to export 2.6 million cars to the US every year, tariff free, and currently we ship much less.

2. Dairy

This is where Canada gave some concessions, but no more than what was already given to the trans Pacific free trade and the EU free trade agreements. Trump wanted to dismantle our supply management system, yet now they had to be happy with access to 3.6% of our market.

Additional imports mean less captive domestic market for Canada’s farmers, which means more farms may downsize herds and close. It will force our dairy sector to become more competitive, and may eventually translate into lower grocery prices, according to Sylvain Charlebois, a business professor at Dalhousie University.

3. Steel

Pretty much nothing has effectively changed. US still needs much more steel and aluminum than they can currently produce, and they HAVE to import it from us, so their tariffs are hurting their own consumers, while our tariffs remain in place as well.

4. Dispute Resolution

Despite much hot air from Trump, Canada has ensured that Chapter 19 resolution process remains in place. The fact that Canada prevailed here will be touted as a significant win by the Canadian negotiators.

“Having a robust and fair dispute-resolution mechanism is absolutely critical to maintaining a rules-based trading system and providing an avenue for Canada and Canadian companies to appeal unwarranted duties,” Susan Yurkovich, president of the B.C. Lumber Trade Council, said in a statement.

5. Sunset Clause

Another stupid idea floated by Trump, Canada has ensured there is no expiry date for the new NAFTA. Hence businesses can plan for growth and future without worrying about the treaty expiring.

6. Others

Oil. Labour. Drugs. Wine. On all those issues, pretty much nothing has effectively changed in a major fashion, despite much US complaints. In all of those issues, Canada has held firm and Trudeau managed to get his way.

Source: Washington Post, Maclean's

Why Ford Will Get Away With His Use of Notwithstanding Clause

Regardless of whether you think Ford was right to use the notwithstanding clause, what is not in debate is his right to use it. All the talk about him suspending Charter rights and democracy is rubbish; the Charter specifically gives Premier Ford the right to use the notwithstanding clause. Here is why I think he will go politically unscathed despite using what is called a "nuclear option" on such a small thing.

1. Most polls actually show a broad public support for reducing the size of the Toronto council. At worst case for him, the support is split even. Let's face it: when was the last time you felt we needed more politicians? So Ford is trying to do a thing which has public support.
   
2. All these talks of how "experts" think we need more members in the council and how "experts" have railed against Ford's plans is useless talk. Think about it - these same "experts" have been saying we don't need to expand Toronto subways, we need LRTs. These same experts think we need more taxes. These same experts think Toronto is functioning well but we need to reduce cars in the city. Meanwhile, traffic in Toronto is now at a crisis, commuting takes longer than ever, and the subway across Toronto has been stuck from Kipling to Kennedy for the last twenty years. These same so-called experts have totally failed, and missed the ball. Toronto needed subways twenty years ago, not now. When Ford (and previously his brother) railed against LRTs and said we need more subways, they were right, and the people knew they were right, experts be damned. So if Premier Ford wants to do this to help him build transit in the city, the people are going to be behind him.
   
3. The notwithstanding clause was specifically meant to be used in cases of judicial overreach, or an activist jury. And this is precisely what we have here. I mean, which judge uses the word "crickets" in his statement? His disdain for Ford showed through every word of his ruling. Like it or not, Ford as Premier has the right to overrule City Council any time. The cities are creatures of the province. Yes, the writ has dropped for municipal elections, but that doesn't mean anything. The judge specifically said this law limited candidate's freedom of expression - which doesn't even make sense. An appeal process would take far too long - hence comes the "nuclear hammer" or the notwithstanding clause.
   
4. Ford was elected by Ontario. You can say that most people don't vote or complain about the FPTP system, but the fact is that this guy was elected with a majority mandate and he has the right to go ahead with his agenda. Four years later, he will be judged by the public on this. Using the courts to stall and delay what is not essential attacks on Charter rights is just a stalling tactic and the general public gets it, even if the elites at Toronto Star don't.

At the end of it all, Ford will be judged on whether he got transit built. He is right when he said John Tory talked a lot and got nothing done (*cough* SmartTrack *cough*). So let's give Ford a chance and see if he can get something done.

Why I am endorsing the NDP for the 2015 Elections

There are two things you should look at when you select anyone for a job.

One. If he or she has the qualifications and strength necessary for the job.

Two. The person be an honourable man or woman of integrity who can be trusted.

Tom Mulcair of the NDP has been a successful cabinet minister in the government of Quebec, and the leader of the Opposition for the last five years. He has over thirty five years of experience in government, and can draw on the experience of the NDP in provincial governments around the country. Clearly he can do the job, and do it well.

However, it can be argued that so can the others. Stephen Harper of the Conservatives has been a Prime Minister for the last ten years (his job and economic record can be debated) and Justin Trudeau, despite the "Not Ready" campaign, can draw on the experience of his vastly qualified slew of candidates in cabinet.

Where Tom Mulcair triumphs the others is with his integrity, honesty and trustworthiness. He is a man of principles who stands by his principles when he is convinced he is correct, regardless of how unpopular his stance may be or the political cost. This is in sharp contrast to the Liberals, who will say anything to get elected, throw their principles out of the window if they are against the political climate and the Conservatives, whose principles are actually to divide the country and set Canadians against each other to win votes.

Mulcair didn't need to support a woman's right to dress as she please - he knew it was going to cost him votes in Quebec. Mulcair didn't need to oppose Bill C51 - it was a hugely popular bill at the time. Yet in both those cases, he made the correct decision despite the short term cost, and history will vindicate that he was on the right side in the long term.

This is a leader, the only leader, who has the support of the First Nations, who has reached out to communities across the country without patronizing them, who has supported the minorities and the less privileged of the society when it wasn't fashionable to do so. He has been opposed to the Conservative agenda from day one and when he says something - you can be sure it's because he believes in it himself, and not because it will get him some votes.

On this election, forget strategic voting. Polls in Canada have been consistently wrong since 2008 elections. Vote for your conscience. Vote for the only party that cares about you.

Vote NDP.
 

elexn42: Harper's Economic Policies

So I am definitely not pro-Harper. I am almost certain I will vote NDP. I want the Conservatives to be dethroned from power in Canada. Despite all of this, I have to say Harper probably has the better economic suggestions so far.

- Can't really blame Harper for the economy; this is a global catastrophe and Canada is a smallish player. Look at Ontario: it's in terrible condition and it's all Liberal governments there.

- Harper is blamed from deficit budgets when it was forced on him initially by a minority government where the Liberals and NDP had the balance of power.

- Harper isn't really adding any permanent spending (obligations) on the Canadian government unlike the NDP with their childcare plan (good intentions, but it would be a disaster to run).
 
- My taxes have actually gone down under Harper and benefits gone up.

- Harper's proposal to limit foreign ownership of property (especially Chinese ownership) is long overdue (question: why hasn't he done it in 5 years as a majority power?).
 
- Liberal plans to increase taxes on wealthy but not corporate taxes is pretty stupid when it's proven that raising corporate taxes forces them to spend the money on employees and equipment.

Where Harper definitely deserves to go is on fields more important than economy. He has downgraded the democracy and the openness of Canadian society, increased divisions and apathy, changed our long standing foreign policy and increased the reach of government in our private lives.

A New Streetcar Everyone Desired

The Toronto Transit Corporation (TTC) had been teasing us about the new streetcars for a year now. They were supposed to be accessible, air conditioned, quieter, smoother and so on. I knew that they would be rolling out the new streetcars on the Spadina route on Aug 31, 2014. Two days before that, I was thrilled to get a glimpse of the new streetcar while they were testing it.

It really looked slick. It was futuristic and looked completely different than the streetcars currently used in service. I couldn't wait for Aug 31 to come.

On September 1, Labour Day, my brother and I decided to head downtown for some work. We would be using the Spadina route. As we waited for our streetcar to come, I was disappointed to see they were still using the old streetcars on the route. I asked someone with a TTC badge, and they replied initially there was only 2 new models on the route; the rest would be rolled out gradually. Something about a workers' strike at the Bombardier plant. Ah, strikes - the price of freedom and labour equality and all that stuff. Grunting a sigh, I boarded the old streetcar.

Yesterday, September 3, I stepped off the subway platform at Spadina and saw a huuuuuuge lineup for the streetcars. What was going on?

It turned out that it was just a regular rush hour crunch. We were all waiting for streetcars. I was wondering - would I get to ride the new streetcar?

YES! Suddenly the new streetcar rolled into the station. Almost immediately everyone headed for the doors. There was no time to take a picture - I had to board. I was in! Once seated, I noticed just how big (and spacious) this new streetcar was. This one streetcar had almost four times the capacity (or even more - I am estimating) of the old streetcar. It was crowded, but not suffocating.

And then, it was my stop. My ride lasted a mere 4 quick stops, and it was over before it had begun.

Hmm. I thought. That was great (it was a very smooth ride) but how do I get to ride one again? I had the lunch hour coming up, and I have a transit pass that allows me unlimited rides, but I knew there was only 2 new streetcars on the route. I didn't want to spend 30 minutes waiting streetcar after streetcar until the one I wanted came by.

Enter the Internet. So there is this website that lets you know where the next streetcar is, and if it's the new one or not. I love living in the First World where this sort of thing is possible. I picked a time a little after lunch hour, when I thought the car would be less crowded, monitored the map, and then headed out for the stop.

And old streetcar came ambling by.

I let it go. I noticed that they had installed new fare machines on each stop, and there was a TTC person on hand to explain the machine to riders. And then I saw the new streetcar come into view.

I got in! My plan was to ride it to the Spadina station and then back again to my stop. Boy was it spacious inside. It almost felt like I was in a train or an LRT instead of in a streetcar. There was a streetcar route map on board. By 2019, every one of those routes would have these modern streetcars.

 

Surprisingly the streetcar was fairly packed. Not quite full, but not empty either. Talking to some people I found that like me, they had especially waited to board this new streetcar.

There were displays for the street name, and even an announcement of every stop. Besides, if someone requested a stop, you would see the signal light up. Very good UI.

 There was that familiar yellow strip bar to press in case of emergencies. Just like the train.

Big windows and doors let in maximum sunlight, thus creating a roomy feeling. The floor was quite low, and yet the ride was very smooth. You would not even hear the wheels against the rails. I guess the true test would come in the years ahead - the older streetcars had been plying the roads for over 30 years.

And then the streetcar got to Spadina station. This was the terminus stop. I would probably have at most a minute as the passengers unloaded, and moved away, before the next set of passengers would load. Time to take some pictures of the now empty streetcar.

It was long. The new streetcar has 5 modules, and is almost 30 metres in length. This is more than 4 times the length of the older streetcar.

The driver no longer collects the fare. You pay your fare on these new machines that takes tokens or cash. You can board through any of the doors now (which prevent the jamming up at the front problem that occurs on regular streetcars as people don't move to the empty space at the rear). I wondered what would happen on a really crowded car - how would you get to the fare machine? The answer - every stop on route has a fare machine, as well as the stations.

 

See the blue seats? That's part of the new designated Priority Area for customers with wheelchairs and other mobility devices. Besides, the new streetcar has a low floor, and is accessible to all by a ramp that is deployed by operators when requested (you push the illuminated blue accessibility button on the second set of doors). As folks were now starting to board, I got to see the new ramp in action.

It soon got busy again as the streetcar started to head back down Spadina.

Everyone was taking pictures of the new ride and enjoying the roomy seating and the bright, big windows.

I moved to the end of the streetcar and saw a button on the door. I asked one of the TTC folks (helpfully seated there to orient riders with the features of the new car) on why this button was there. He replied that this will open the door of the car at the stop. On busy routes at rush hour, all the doors automatically open, so I wouldn't need to press the button. However, at night or if the streetcar isn't on a busy route, doors may remain shut unless there are passengers waiting to exit. I like it.

Soon it was my turn to exit. All in all, it was a great ride, and makes for a much better transit experience. And to think this is what some people who hated streetcars fought against! I can't wait until they replace the whole fleet on every route with these new vehicles.

Note: All pictures taken with my Google Nexus 4 phone camera.

3 Reasons Why Olivia Chow Continues to Sink

And no, it has nothing to do with Warren Kinsella, however much you despise the man.

A week is a long time in politics, and Olivia Chow still has roughly seven weeks to work with. It could still happen that after the night of Oct 27, 2014, we could be talking about "Chow time in Toronto". This, despite the fact that she is polling third, behind Rob Ford, and an almost out of reach John Tory at first, after Labour day. Rob Ford could still have a "drunken stupor". Tory could, well, be a Tory - and propose something silly like funding for transit for the religious or something.

However, barring an upset of epic proportions, the one time front runner Olivia Chow is going to be an also-ran in this year's municipal elections, and John Tory (who entered the race a distant third) is going to be Toronto's next mayor. Here is why.

Transit, and Scarborough

Transit is the number 1 issue on the minds of Torontonians. When David Miller was mayor, he worked out a deal with the province that would have LRTs across the city, especially Scarborough. He dubbed the plan "Transit City". At last, something was going to get done. Then along came Rob Ford, and he killed that plan, and we started all over again. Everyone now wanted a subway. The provincial election happened, and all the pro-subway candidates got elected. The province said fine, we will give you your subway.

So now, finally, we have a deal to have a Scarborough subway, and along comes Olivia Chow, to kill that plan, and go back to LRTs. Folks in the city want this endless flip flopping to stop, and just build something. Anything. Even if a 3-stop subway is less effective than a 7-stop LRT, so be it - just don't keep changing the plans. Olivia Chow doesn't get that. In her plan, she would keep the tax increase that was to pay for the subway, but kill the subway. That is a losing proposition from day one.

Even with the rest of the city, Olivia Chow has no subway plans, except a small downtown relief portion, when clearly going underground would be the best way to move everyone. Yes, there is a cost to it. Olivia Chow would have LRTs, and more buses. More buses?!!! That's just adding to the gridlock.

Against this, John Tory's SmartTrack proposal sounds logical, doable, and well thought out. He started from the gate early on with this proposal and it had the whole summer to build traction. Yes, some has called it "snake oil", but crucially, he seems to have the backing of the Liberal government at Queen's Park. Tory's plan connects the city right across from Mississauga to Markham, and is ambitious, sexy and everything that Chow's plan is not. And the day Chow did decide to release her own transit map, along comes Warren Kinsella to cause a ruckus by labeling Tory as a "segregationist". Dumb, dumb move, yes, but Chow's real problem with transit starts way before that.

Chow is not a great speaker

You may be really good, sincere and honest. You could be hardworking with a lot of great ideas. You could be this and that - but you need to be able to communicate your ideas and experience. You need to be articulate. You need to have charisma.

Olivia Chow, sadly, doesn't. When she speaks, all you want to do is turn the TV off. She can't communicate her platform properly. Her sentences are sometimes wrong grammatically. She cannot give an inspiring speech to save her career. On the stump she comes across as wooden, irritated and rehearsed. She only needs to look at Barbara Hall and Stephane Dion to see how careers were destroyed by the inability to string a coherent sentence together with charisma.

Chow's Platform is too unfocused, and does not resonate

What's Rob Ford about? Subways (and crack).

What's John Tory about? Smart Track.

What's Olivia Chow about? Err ... purple?

Even her platform website is too unwieldy. She has too many ideas out there, and no focus on a single one. And caring for kids - who in Toronto really cares about the breakfast program, for which she would raise Land Transfer taxes? When I was a kid I ate my breakfast at home. She should have focused on a handful of issues that most Torontonians actually cared about, and not about 20 issues. Whoever is running her campaign and advising her needs to be fired.

So now, it's September 4, and Olivia Chow has about seven weeks to rescue her floundering ship. It will be an interesting election day on Oct 27, 2014.

World Cup 2014 Group Predictions

Taking a break from following the municipal and provincial elections, and a few federal by-elections, I decided to have some fun and predict the World Cup groups. It seems it was just yesterday the 2010 World Cup (forever associated with the awful vuvuzela cacophony) ended, and here the World Cup 2014 begins in a couple of days. Without much ado, here are my group stages prediction. And yes, for what it's worth, I am predicting Argentina to win the World Cup.

Group A: Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon

It would be a huge shock if Brazil failed at the first hurdle and failed to qualify out of the group. They are many people's favourites to win the Cup, and in my view, good enough to top the group and go deep into the tournament. The much talked about home pressure is less of a liability when it comes to the group games, which are not knock-outs, so their home support (and its subtle effect on the referees), plus the fact they are simply a very good squad, will see Brazil win all their matches. The real battle in the group will be for second place, which should go to Mexico. Croatia is not the force it once was, and Cameroon (like many African teams) have a leaky defence. Mexico's grit and flair should see them qualify out of the group.

Prediction: Brazil, Mexico

Group B: Spain, Holland, Chile, Australia

Spain has been winning everything since the last World Cup. Zinedine Zidane is reputed to have once said, "the day Spain starts winning, they won't stop". Yet they didn't win the last Confederations Cup (which may not be a bad thing; the winner of the Confederations never wins the World Cup). Spain won the 2008 Euros, the 2010 World Cup, the 2012 Euros, and are one of the favourites for 2014 World Cup. Yet, in the group lies Holland, their opponent in the 2010 finals (and also exiting 2012 Euros in the group stages). Chile, the South American team playing in conditions familiar to them, are no slouch either. Australia, I reckon, will be beaten by all other three teams and are hopelessly outclassed. Spain's class should see them through, and I expect Chile to surprise everyone by being 2nd. Depending on results, they could even top the group, though that's stretching it far.

Predictions: Spain, Chile

Group C: Colombia, Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan

This is a tough to call group as it's a bunch of similarly matched mediocre level teams. I will go out and say I hope Greece does NOT qualify - they play the most boring soccer by putting ten men behind the ball (which led them to win an Euro, believe it or not), so I hope they go out. Yet Greece almost qualified in 2010 (in a group that included Nigeria, South Korea and Argentina), and DID make it out of the group in 2012. So this is a tough call, but I expect Columbia to be aided by familiar South American conditions, and Japan to let their professionalism dictate tough matches against the Greek defence and Ivory Coast flair.

Predictions: Columbia, Japan

Group D: Uruguay, Costa Rica, England, Italy

This is the group of death. Poor Costa Rica. They play the Group B's Australia role of this group. This is one group where I think the order of matches matter.

Uruguay - Costa Rice; victor: Uruguay

England - Italy; Tie.

England tied their last match with Italy, and have enough workmanlike qualities to tie them this time too. They also historically tie their first match (focus on not losing, and getting at least a share of the spoils). Italy, I expect, will also be not too unhappy with a tie.

Uruguay - England; victor: England by a goal.

Somehow England will find a way to win this match. Whether it's a last minute header or a penalty, they know they have to win this. At the worst, it will be a tie, but I am calling a win for the English.

Italy - Costa Rica; victor: Italy

Italy goes up in the group, but it all comes down to the last round of matches.

England - Costa Rica; victor: England

With the pressure off after a victory in the previous match, England will outclass Costa Rica, probably winning by a brace of goals (let me say 3-0). Even if the last match was a tie, they still have enough class to beat Costa Rica.

Italy - Uruguay; victor: Uruguay

Yes, this is the virtual knock out, and Uruguay is dirty enough to win.

Prediction: England, Uruguay

Group E: Switzerland, Ecuador, France, Honduras

Yuck, what a group. Can we just pretend this group never happened? Honestly, this tells you where Canadian soccer is that we cannot go past Honduras.

Prediction: France, Switzerland.

Group F: Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iran, Nigeria

Argentina will win this group. Unless there is a complete collapse of their football, they are going to win this group rather easily. None of the other team has one player who is equal to the worst Argentina player, and Argentina has probably the world's best club player (Messi) in their squad. I had always rated Messi as overrated for international football as he has not performed in previous World Cups, but this is his year. I always had a soft spot for Iran (ever since their 2-1 victory over USA in 1998 when I was in the Middle East where everyone supported them), but Iran is many levels below Nigeria and Bosnia. Honestly, it's hard to say which is the better of these two teams. I am going out on a limb and call it for Bosnia, just because their defence is the better one.

Prediction: Argentina, Bosnia

Group G: Germany, Portugal, Ghana, USA

If there's a cricket world cup semis list, you can bet New Zealand will find a way to be on it. If it's a soccer semis list, somehow Germany is there. This is a team for which 2nd place is a disaster. I cannot see Germany NOT qualifying out of the group, so the first place in this group will be Germany. The fourth place should be the Americans, because a) Why the hell is Landon Donovan not in the squad, and b) they are Americans who pretend this is soccer and football is something else. Portugal is a one star steam and he (CR) is also coming back from an injury, so this makes for an interesting Ghana - Portugal clash. I am going against logic and supporting the underdog here, so I am picking Ghana.

Prediction: Germany, Ghana

Group H: Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea

Another mediocre group. Belgium is the dark horse of many in this tournament, and I expect them to at least dominate this group. They should dominate this group, especially with players with names such as Hazard. The Russians should qualify as well, but the South Koreans are a talented bunch as well. I am going to favour the Koreans slightly as they might be more used to the heat and humidity, playing as they do in Asia.

Prediction: Belgium, South Korea

Ontario Election 2014 Debate Analysis

I will come out and say it - as an Ontario Liberal party supporter, I was disappointed.

First of all, why is the Premier apologizing for the gas plant relocations? It was put into Parliament and voted by all three parties and all of them AGREED to move the gas plants. It is not a waste of a billion dollars - the government listened to the people and acted on their wishes - the very same accusation that Conservatives allege against the Liberals with respect to windmills, that the Liberals don't listen to the people.

I would have preferred the Premier come out more strongly against Hudak's previous foibles (such as Ontario being a right-to-work province), and against Horwath's opportunism. Hudak, it must not be forgotten, was just a short while ago amenable to the idea of not letting unions enforce the union due - in effect crippling the unions. Premier Wynn should have brought back the specter of Mike Harris and the constant strikes and utter privatization mismanagement that was the hallmark of his era.

As for Horwath, she should have been flat out asked, "What exactly in the budget are you opposed to?" And, as for the Ontario Pension Plan, as the Star points out, Horwath supported it until quite recently. And when did it exactly become a Harper-pension plan?

If I had to pick a winner, I would say Tim Hudak as he was a clear and an effective communicator (despite not answering the jobs question properly). Horwath had some memorable lines.

John Tory's Transit Plan

I just read through John Tory's massive and comprehensive One Toronto transit plan that can be found at http://onetorontotransit.ca/ . Here's my take on it.

Pros:
1) It is completely aligned with the Liberal and NDP election platforms and Metrolinx plans, so there would not be any fight for changes.
2) It tackles problems that other candidates never talk about, such as people living in cities next to Toronto, and about people who currently have no option BUT to drive.
3) It is comprehensive and not just downtown centric. Scarborough folks have a lot to be happy about.
4) It is far more detailed and shows Tory has spent time thinking about all angles, as opposed to Olivia "Just Have More Buses" Chow.

Cons:
1) It depends on the province and Metrolinx to follow through on their plans without any cutbacks. Ya, that's happening.
2) It depends too much on Go Transit being cooperative, as Tory would use their tracks. Ya, right.
3) Biggest Flip-flop Ever on "downtown relief line" being his "number one priority".

Overall, it is good to see a candidate release a thorough and thought-out transit solution, rather than the Band-Aid solutions being offered by other candidates.

On the Sun - "We can fake this" - News Scandal

So I decided to head over to Blogging Tories to see how the Cons would try and spin the "fake reaffirmation ceremony" that their beloved Sun News tried to pull off. In today's Star, Mallick has a great article on why this is a mockery of our democracy. So let's see how the Tories respond.

The first post I checked calls for Heritage Minister James Moore to quit, because "he is fair minded" and corrects "Sun News when they allege the CBC is a state broadcaster, reminding them CBC is arms-length".

Wow, so if a minister is actually telling the truth, that's a firing offense in the Cons world. Well the author's blog is called "Blue Like You" (it should really be called "Blue Like 40% of You", as that's how many of us voted Cons - the rest chose other options). So, to recap, a Con minister should keep silent and defer to Great Leader Harper, or else lie.

Meanwhile, one BC blogger ("BC Blue") thinks this is actually Canadian Press (CP)'s fault!

Sun News found out this morning just how despised they are by all the other Canadian journos for not going along with the insider game currently being played.

Um, yeah, as a journalist you don't play insider games with the government - you hold them to account! Somehow the people at Sun - "We can fake this" - News didn't get the memo. And who do the Cons blame? Why, once more the person, or organization, that has pointed out the truth.

Guess when they were parroting their "Accountability Act" they meant it applying only to other people.

3 Reasons Why Canada's Immigration System is Broken

1. When we immigrated there seemed to be a value to speaking either English or French before you immigrated to Canada.

Now it seems there's lots of immigrants here who not only can NOT speaking either of those languages, but have no desire to learn.

Example: If you go to a No Frills in Scarborough, Ontario, for example, the lady behind the fish counter has no idea how to speak English. Ask her a question, she doesn't know how to respond, and will call someone else who also speaks very limited English. You point to the fish, say "small or large pieces" and they cut it for you. And this type of customer experience is now becoming widespread in parts of Toronto.

2. It used to be multiculturalism. Now it's being dominated by a few immigrant groups.

Canada used to be a magnet for immigrants from across the world. Yet now, attend a citizenship ceremony in Toronto, and it's dominated by immigrants from one or two ethnicities. And not only that, these groups seem to go out of their way to not mix with other groups.

Example: You will never see a non-desi working in a desi store, or a non-Chinese worker at a Chinese store. Why?

3. Immigrants are being denied work opportunities and discriminated against daily.

I don't need to link to studies or research here to prove what every immigrant knows is a fact of life.

Why is an engineer serving fast food?

Why is a doctor driving a taxi?

Why is an MBA cleaning rooms?

Canada imports qualified immigrants to do cheap labour, thus robbing the developing countries of their talent pool, while wasting them here. The Canadian boards that govern doctors, engineers, and other "licensed" boards make immigrants run around circles for years in a desperate quest to do what they are adequately trained to do.

Why Rana Sarkar Lost Scarborough Rouge-River

When stalwarts like Yasmin Ratansi can lost in Don Valley East, no Liberal riding was safe in the GTA. Yet, Scarborough Rouge-River was one riding Liberals could have held on. Instead, the Liberal candidate Rana Sarkar lost to NDP's Rathika Sitsabaiesan (18,856 votes and 40.5 per cent support). In fact, he came third, with Conservative Marlene Gallyot placing second (source: The Star).

Having grown up there, and knowing many of the families through sports and recreational meets, here's why I think the Liberals lost.

1. Well known and liked MP Derek Lee was standing down, so there was no incumbency factor.

2. Rana Sarkar was relatively unknown; in fact I am told he lives downtown (so was not even a resident of the area). Rathika Sitsabaiesan was someone who lives in the area and was involved in activism (she was involved in the University of Toronto student council).

3. Rana Sarkar was an Indian-Candian in a riding that has a huge Tamil population. In fact, I felt someone else, preferably a Tamil candidate, should have taken Derek Lee's position. My choice would have been Shamoon Poonawala, someone close to Derek Lee's campaign, and also a Tamil. In fact, I was surprised Neethan Shan, who ran a credible municipal candidate, was also not tapped (even though he leans NDP).

Lesson for the Liberals - local candidates matter.

From a Voter - Why the Liberals Lost

I had a hard time voting for the Liberal party this election. And I live in one of Scarborough's most ethnic communities in the GTA, full of immigrants, Muslims and (former) Liberal supporters. And yet, our riding went Conservative. Here's my take on why the Liberal party has been decimated in their stronghold of Toronto.

1. A "Just Visiting" Leader

A lot of us don't like Michael Ignatieff. And that's us Liberals; forget those who just know him from "Just Visiting" ads. The guy stays out of the country for 30 years, and then comes back and immediately wants to be Prime Minister? What does he even KNOW of the average Canadian? Hell, he even supported the Iraq war!

2. A Shift to the Right

The Liberal party was supposed to bring our troops home from Afghanistan. What happened?

The Liberal party was supposed to oppose corporate tax rate reductions. What happened?

The Liberal party was supposed to be against deficit spending. What happened?

The Liberal party used to have a balanced position in world conflicts. What happened?

When the voters cannot see a difference between Liberals and Conservatives, those on the right will vote for the real right party i.e. Conservatives. And those on the left will support the NDP, which is what happened. I have said long ago that Liberals need to be more left than right.

3. The Economy is Pretty Bad

Really. People are worried about their jobs, or how they will pay the next bill. And along comes the Liberals promising $4000 in tuition to students, cap and trade, telling people to "Rise Up" (for what?) and so on. What about their MAIN CONCERN?

As a Blue Grit, I would have LOVED to see my taxes go down. The Liberals should have borrowed Paul Martin's playbook and promised a reduction in income taxes. Liberals need to concentrate on the basics.

4. McGuinty Or, as I call him, Mc Guilty

You can blame Harper for the G20 all you want, we who live in Toronto know that the real villains were Mc Guinty and his secret law, and the powers he gave to a police force that seems to have abused it. And which party is Mc Guinty again? Oh, yes - the Liberals. And that's not even getting into the HST.

5. Taking Immigrants and the GTA for granted

What was the last thing the Liberals did for us immigrants? It let us in. And that was it.

For years, I have been crying out about jobs and credential recognition for immigrants, while the Liberals seem happy to just let in immigrants to work as pizza delivery men or window washers or taxi drivers. Stephane Dion told me during an interview on how he planned to tackle this, but nothing was proposed by the Liberals in the last 4 years. Instead, it was Harper who was seen to be moving on this agenda.

Only time will tell how the Tories will reward Toronto and Rob Ford for their support, but at the moment, Harper is right when he mentions about the money he had spent in Toronto (Union Station, Spadina subway extension, and yes, G20).

Rocco Rossi - FAIL!

I have not made an in-depth analysis of Rocco Rossi's proposals yet. But anyone who targets to stop Transit City, which is Miller's only worthwhile initiative that I can fight for, is a FAIL! candidate.


Anyone who wants to stop Transit City is not fit to be mayor of Toronto.

Perhaps they care after all

The Prime Minister thought Canadians wouldn't care when he prorogued Parliament.

Slightly left-wing Toronto radio host John Moore agreed.

I also had asked whether Canadians truly cared.

However, latest numbers show the Tories are tied with the Liberals in support.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government has paid a large price in popularity for shutting down Parliament, with his Conservatives effectively tied with Liberals in a new poll by The Strategic Counsel.

Conservatives are at 31 per cent, compared to 30 per cent for Liberals, in the poll conducted by Strategic Counsel late last week, as controversy was starting to build over Harper's prorogation of Parliament until March 3.

That's the lowest the Conservatives have been since last June in Strategic Counsel polling.

"Proroguing of Parliament has hurt the Tory brand," said Tim Woolstencroft, the managing partner at Strategic Counsel, who believes that Harper's Conservatives must be seeing the same kind of numbers, because the government has appeared to be in a defensive posture all week. "I think the government is worried about it," Woolstencroft said.

When the Liberals, without laying out alternative policies, with a leader still not broadly popular, with only Facebook numbers for comfort, can be tied with the Cons, perhaps the reports of their death had been highly exaggerated after all.

Harper going (pro)rogue

In a great piece of investigative journalism the Toronto Star has found that majority of Canadians oppose Harper suspending parliament.

What to me would have been a more illustrative question would have been "Do you care?".

We will have the Olympics, then Parliament will resume and come election time, no one will remember this incident. That's why these polls mean nothing.

Opposition "Outraged" At Prorogue

Er... except that Michael Ignatieff is somewhere in Europe and Layton is surfing in Belize.

Seriously.