The next general election for Canada will take place on or before Oct 21, 2019. While various polls show Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the lead, with right wing Conservative leader Andrew Scheer and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh failing to capture the public's attention, a lot can change from now to October. The never ending honeymoon that Trudeau was seemingly enjoying in the first two years has all but vanished, and there's a growing sense that he might be in trouble during the election. I will talk about his good work, and his challenges, and how the Liberals can overcome those.
Here are some good things Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government has done:
1. He kept promises such as overhauling the child benefit plan, legalizing cannabis, giving parents option of extended parental leave.
2. Lowered taxes for the middle class, while increasing the taxes for the wealthiest 1%.
3. Reversed many of the excesses of the Harper era, such as unmuzzling government scientists, enabling the long form census for Stats Canada, revitalized federal ocean science programs and promoting the national parks program.
4. Made all of Canada's national parks free for the Canada 150 event.
5. Strengthened the Canada Pension Plan, and increased infrastructure funding to a historic $120 billion over the next 10 years.
6. Simplified family immigration by decreasing the time taken to sponsor new family members, particularly spouses.
7. Signed the Paris Climate Change agreement.
8. Took in over 30,000 refugees from Syria.
9. A gender balanced cabinet.
Trudeau also had some major disasters, such as the trip to India, the broken promise of electoral reform and his problem with deficits.
Going forward, these are likely to be his greatest challenges in the election:
1. Some Canadians are feeling left behind.
It's a bit surreal, but the Canadian economy is motoring along nicely. Unemployment is at its lowest in decades, and inflation is on target at just over 2%. Canada has also managed to sign a new free trade deal with US and Mexico, and have dealt efficiently with Trump.
Yet there is no question that some Canadians feel left behind. They are uncertain of the economic direction of the country. The finance department has said deficits could remain till 2040. House prices remain high. Millennials are finding life more expensive and harder than their parents. There is a sense that the middle class is slipping. For Trudeau, who campaigned on the promise to help "the middle class and those working hard to join it", that could spell trouble.
2. Oil
There is the carbon tax, which is being heavily fought by a few of the premiers. And then there is the neverending saga of the pipeline. Trudeau wants the pipeline to be built, yet he has been unable to deliver on this. This is hurting Alberta and hurting the Liberal-friendly NDP government there. While Alberta was never a Liberal stronghold, a combination of low oil prices, carbon taxes that may not work exactly as planned due to market variations and a hostile new provincial government in Alberta helping the Conservatives might spell deep trouble for the Liberals.
3. Immigration
Issues like healthcare and economy usually dominate the Canadian list of concerns during an election. But this time immigration could play a role. In the past two years, over 38,500 migrants have crossed the border illegally in order to turn themselves over to authorities and make refugee claims. The sheer number of asylum seekers has strained the resources of government and community organisations. The wait-time for hearings by Canada's refugee board has edged up to an average of around 20 months. But with a report projecting that supporting and processing the asylum seekers could cost taxpayers over C$1bn, there is a growing sense the file has been mishandled.
Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen is one of the least popular ministers in Trudeau's cabinet, according to the Angus Reid Institute. Given the subject tends to bubble up into public consciousness in late summer when migrant numbers have jumped in the past, this could be a lurking vulnerability for Trudeau.
HOW SHOULD HE OVERCOME THESE CHALLENGES?
1. Keep the focus on Scheer's extreme right wing tendencies.
Canadians still remember the dark era of the Harper majority government. Trudeau should keep reminding people about how similar Scheer is to Harper, and in fact he is even more extreme. He should remind Canadians about the assault on democratic institutions; the war on the press; the muzzling of scientists; the drumbeat of official lies; the assault on the Supreme Court; the politicization of the RCMP; the abandonment of the UN; the retreat from multilateralism; the rush to war; and a string of corruption scandals, including one that led directly to the door of the Prime Minister’s Office. The senator Mike Duffy and Nigel Wright Affair. Trumpland before Trump.
2. Remind Canadians that he is the only one to have dealt properly with Trump, neither making him an enemy nor caving to him on every front.
There is a sense that the Conservatives would simply bend over to Trump and give everything to him on a silver platter. Trudeau should remind voters that he has gone toe to toe with the US President and come out a winner.
3. Remind Canadians about his promises kept and the Conservative broken promises.
If Jason Kenney wins in Alberta and harrumphs about the shortcomings of former Premier Rachel Notley and the Prime Minister, Trudeau should note that the Harper government, in which Kenney was a senior cabinet minister, never delivered a single pipeline to Alberta. Not one. Trudeau meanwhile has not only supported the Kinder Morgan pipeline, he has bought it.
4. Cut down on the feminist part, and play for the male voter.
Trudeau needs to show to the male voters that he gets their pain. That he understands the bread and butter issues. "Because it's 2015" is not going to work in 2019. According to NANOS polls, more male voters are drifting away from the Liberals due to their concerns about the economy. Tour the factories, the construction work on the infrastructure, and cut down on the selfies.
In other words, more steak, less sizzle.
Here are some good things Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government has done:
1. He kept promises such as overhauling the child benefit plan, legalizing cannabis, giving parents option of extended parental leave.
2. Lowered taxes for the middle class, while increasing the taxes for the wealthiest 1%.
3. Reversed many of the excesses of the Harper era, such as unmuzzling government scientists, enabling the long form census for Stats Canada, revitalized federal ocean science programs and promoting the national parks program.
4. Made all of Canada's national parks free for the Canada 150 event.
5. Strengthened the Canada Pension Plan, and increased infrastructure funding to a historic $120 billion over the next 10 years.
6. Simplified family immigration by decreasing the time taken to sponsor new family members, particularly spouses.
7. Signed the Paris Climate Change agreement.
8. Took in over 30,000 refugees from Syria.
9. A gender balanced cabinet.
Trudeau also had some major disasters, such as the trip to India, the broken promise of electoral reform and his problem with deficits.
Going forward, these are likely to be his greatest challenges in the election:
1. Some Canadians are feeling left behind.
It's a bit surreal, but the Canadian economy is motoring along nicely. Unemployment is at its lowest in decades, and inflation is on target at just over 2%. Canada has also managed to sign a new free trade deal with US and Mexico, and have dealt efficiently with Trump.
Yet there is no question that some Canadians feel left behind. They are uncertain of the economic direction of the country. The finance department has said deficits could remain till 2040. House prices remain high. Millennials are finding life more expensive and harder than their parents. There is a sense that the middle class is slipping. For Trudeau, who campaigned on the promise to help "the middle class and those working hard to join it", that could spell trouble.
2. Oil
There is the carbon tax, which is being heavily fought by a few of the premiers. And then there is the neverending saga of the pipeline. Trudeau wants the pipeline to be built, yet he has been unable to deliver on this. This is hurting Alberta and hurting the Liberal-friendly NDP government there. While Alberta was never a Liberal stronghold, a combination of low oil prices, carbon taxes that may not work exactly as planned due to market variations and a hostile new provincial government in Alberta helping the Conservatives might spell deep trouble for the Liberals.
3. Immigration
Issues like healthcare and economy usually dominate the Canadian list of concerns during an election. But this time immigration could play a role. In the past two years, over 38,500 migrants have crossed the border illegally in order to turn themselves over to authorities and make refugee claims. The sheer number of asylum seekers has strained the resources of government and community organisations. The wait-time for hearings by Canada's refugee board has edged up to an average of around 20 months. But with a report projecting that supporting and processing the asylum seekers could cost taxpayers over C$1bn, there is a growing sense the file has been mishandled.
Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen is one of the least popular ministers in Trudeau's cabinet, according to the Angus Reid Institute. Given the subject tends to bubble up into public consciousness in late summer when migrant numbers have jumped in the past, this could be a lurking vulnerability for Trudeau.
HOW SHOULD HE OVERCOME THESE CHALLENGES?
1. Keep the focus on Scheer's extreme right wing tendencies.
Canadians still remember the dark era of the Harper majority government. Trudeau should keep reminding people about how similar Scheer is to Harper, and in fact he is even more extreme. He should remind Canadians about the assault on democratic institutions; the war on the press; the muzzling of scientists; the drumbeat of official lies; the assault on the Supreme Court; the politicization of the RCMP; the abandonment of the UN; the retreat from multilateralism; the rush to war; and a string of corruption scandals, including one that led directly to the door of the Prime Minister’s Office. The senator Mike Duffy and Nigel Wright Affair. Trumpland before Trump.
2. Remind Canadians that he is the only one to have dealt properly with Trump, neither making him an enemy nor caving to him on every front.
There is a sense that the Conservatives would simply bend over to Trump and give everything to him on a silver platter. Trudeau should remind voters that he has gone toe to toe with the US President and come out a winner.
3. Remind Canadians about his promises kept and the Conservative broken promises.
If Jason Kenney wins in Alberta and harrumphs about the shortcomings of former Premier Rachel Notley and the Prime Minister, Trudeau should note that the Harper government, in which Kenney was a senior cabinet minister, never delivered a single pipeline to Alberta. Not one. Trudeau meanwhile has not only supported the Kinder Morgan pipeline, he has bought it.
4. Cut down on the feminist part, and play for the male voter.
Trudeau needs to show to the male voters that he gets their pain. That he understands the bread and butter issues. "Because it's 2015" is not going to work in 2019. According to NANOS polls, more male voters are drifting away from the Liberals due to their concerns about the economy. Tour the factories, the construction work on the infrastructure, and cut down on the selfies.
In other words, more steak, less sizzle.
