US Election 2020 Thoughts (Democratic Primaries)

Looks like Joe Biden will be the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for the Nov 2020 election. He has just won Michigan.

What this shows:

1. Trump is a politically savvy and smart man. Despite all earlier polls first favouring Warren, then Sanders, he knew it would be Joe Biden who would ultimately win. He had called it.
2. Expect the GOP to court Sanders supporters. They will all sound off on how rigged the process was.
3. If Sanders cannot win a Democratic Primary process running to the left, then there is no way in hell he can win a general election running on a socialist platform. All polls that show him ahead of Trump is garbage - they mean nothing this far out.
4. For all of Sander's reported reach amongst youth, amongst Latinos and amongst a wide variety of voters, ultimately you have to vote. Biden's black vote block reliably came out to vote, and Sander's "young voters" didn't. No use crying about rigged process when your own supporters don't show up at the polls.
5. It's not even close. Biden is wiping the floor with Sanders.

What does this mean for a general election?

The whole uncertainty in this whole process is the corona virus and its effect. Americans can be heavily partisan, they can be heavily racist in some states, but everyone values their life. If Biden can make the mismanagement of the COVID-19 outbreak as a defining issue of Trump's bumbling presidency, he will win. In all other routes, Trump HAD him cornered. Biden appears to be senile, prone to gaffes, not in the best agile state of mind, and is making highly restricted campaign appearances as he became a front runner. Expect those glaring deficiencies to be highlighted during the national election campaign. Yet, the COVID-19 outbreak remains the albatross on Trump's neck.

Why Rona Ambrose should be the next leader of the Conservatives

The Conservatives need to win in Ontario and Quebec. The Conservatives need to present a kinder, a more centrist, a more understanding face to the electorate than what they had in the last election. Someone who is presumably not going to rant against gays and abortion. Someone who can at least pretend to like immigrants. Someone who is seen as a smart, credible person and someone who is not friends with white supremacists. ALSO, someone who is not seen as a LIAR.

There should be no debate that Scheer has pathetically failed as a leader of the Conservatives. All this talk of winning the popular vote and increasing seats fails to hide the fact that he failed to beat Justin Trudeau, who was discovered in old pictures with blackface, MID-CAMPAIGN, and suffering from multiple ethic violations. The Conservatives, as Peter MacKay said, missed a sure fire goal on an open net.

Ambrose is everything Scheer is not, or is presumed to not be. She is a woman. She is smart. She presents empathy. She is intelligent. She did not lie about her job or her citizenship. She put Canada first by serving in a cross party advising committee on NAFTA renegotiation with the USA. She has served in government before. She is a seasoned parliamentarian. She also comes across as a decent human being, with proper charisma, unlike Scheer who makes a dead robot look more lively.

During her time in Ottawa, Ambrose has proven to be a formidable opponent in the House of Commons, vigorously taking the government to task while at the same time maintaining a subtle congeniality. She is fierce without being frothing. That probably explains why she is so well liked in Ottawa, particularly among members of her own party.

In short, if the Conservatives want to win in the next election, they should not repeat their mistake of this election. Or else they will suffer the same fate.

Draft Rona.

Now.

October 2019 Election Watch

Things have become very interesting on the federal electron front. October is still far, but as I predicted last time, it's going to get tighter. Much tighter.

According to the latest Nanos poll, the Liberals and the Tories are in a dead heat. Statistically tied. The aggregate summary still points to a Tory lead, but one that is rapidly shrinking. I believe there's two reasons, and we can draw two main conclusions.

Reasons

1. People don't like Scheer (or as I call him, #ScheerNonsense ) because of his association and support for (and from) Ontario Premier Doug Ford. Ford is historically unpopular (more unpopular than Wynne was before losing), and people see Scheer in the same mold.
2. Most people were pissed of at Trudeau for some of his antics (India trip, "peoplekind not mankind", the SNC Lavalin, virtue signalling etc.) but once they evaluate the alternative, they realize he is not that bad. Jobs are plentiful and he is moving on the pipeline issue, and generally people are not thinking about deficits. Besides, Scheer's missteps with dealing with white supremacy is also playing a part.

As the election gets more heated and close, we can expect two conclusions.

1. The NDP will sink even further. Expect the Liberals to promote the idea of the nasty Conservative government doom and gloom scenario, and why we must vote Liberal to stop them. They will not be wrong. The NDP under Singh has no voice, no pulse, no fresh ideas and no charisma. It's sad because we will thus get "safe politics" and not a genuine exchange of ideas.
2. The Quebec religious oppression bill will be a non-issue. In a situation where every vote matters, no one will dare take on Quebec (sadly).

It will be an interesting summer!

Source: CBC